Big D

Big D

Thursday, October 27, 2005

10/29 Picks

Well, I guess this blog finally has some momentum now that people have a reason to read. Hey, whatever works. I'm just happy to have some readers. We'll see how many stick around after football season is over. I plan on posting my college basketball plays here as well once that season gets rolling so hopefully people will keep reading.

I know I'm on pretty torrid stretch right now but keep in mind it can end at anytime so please don't bet beyond your means. I actually don't have any single game that sticks out over the others this week, so I will probably have a pretty consistent unit value on all of these picks (obviously the top plays may get a little more units than the others).

Enough with the public service announcement, here are this week's plays:

Top Plays
@Oregon St. -9.5 over Arizona - A decent Oregon St. team at home against a struggling Arizona team that seems to have a lot of infighting going on with their coaching staff under hothead Mike Stoops. Arizona replaced their starter last week and is going with a true freshman at QB. Arizona actually has played a lot better, especially on D, than their record (1-6) but this week doesn't seem to be the spot where they get back on track. Take the better team playing at home in this one.

@W. Michigan -7 over Kent St. - I'm not usuallly a fan of betting on teams I don't get to see all that often, but this game sticks out. Kent St. is dead last (#117) in rushing offense and 2nd to last (#116) in Rushing defense. Not a good combo, especially when your stud MLB just tore his ACL and you laid an egg at home against No. Illinois 3-34 last weekend. Also, I need to confirm this but W. Michigan has some sort of ridiculous streak of covers against Kent St. as well. I am not usually a big trend guy, but this game looks very tasty.

Smaller Plays
@Stanford +7.5 over UCLA - People continue to criticize Stanford because of their horrid start (loss against 1-AA UC Davis), but they are 3-0 in their last 3 games including 2 road wins (@ Zona, @ WAZZU) and a good win last week against a much respected AZ St. team. Stanford has a pretty salty defense and while UCLA has loads of talent on offense, their defense is atrocius. UCLA has not been a great road team this season and I expect another struggle in this one. I would not be shocked to see the upset either and thus take the 7.5 with the home dog.

Wazzu +30 over USC - I understand why this line is so high, because of the USC "pissed off" factor with being #2 in the BCS. While this game could potentially turn very ugly, USC has not crushed any teams this year with the talent of a WAZZU. A little hesitant about this play because of WAZZU's heartbreaking loss last week against CAL, but this is simply too many points. I like WAZZU getting the 30 and expect them to only lose somewhere in the 21 point range. Small play.

Navy +6 over Rutgers - Two very even teams matching up in a game both teams desperately would like to win. Rutgers needs this game to secure a bowl bid but I expect it to come right down to the wire like most Navy games. I'll take my chances with the Middies getting six points.

@Northwestern +3 over Michigan - I'll ride the Northwestern gravy train one more week but I don't like this spot nearly as much as the last two weeks. Still worth a try since they are getting points at home to an up and down Michigan team.

@No. Illinois -28 over Ball ST.
- Ball St. is one of the worst teams and run defenses in the country against a team that loves to run the ball. Don't usually lay this many points but No. Illinois should cruise in this one.

@Minnesota +4 over Ohio St. - I just think this Minnesota team has more character than in years' past and will not go quietly into the night after their Wisconsin collapse. I think the week off will give them time to get ready for a very stout Ohio St. team. I expect this one to come down to the 4th quarter and I think Minnesota may just shock the world here.

Good luck to all this week... I may add some more later so keep checking for updates...

Sunday, October 23, 2005

Too good to be true

Do you ever have one of those days when everything goes right? Well in the world of college football betting, I had one of those days where I could do no wrong. With the exception of the Kent St. game (dropped it to 1 unit after I knew Kent's star MLB was out) and San Diego St. (stupid late game adds), I won my other 10 bets on the day. 10-2 is just ridiculous and I know I can't keep this up, but right now I am feeling pretty good about my chances the rest of the season. Up +26 units on the day and +58 units for the year. Let's just hope I can keep it positive until bowl season.

Also wanted to send my regards to Hammond who appranetly tailed my selections to a nice payoff yesterday. Hopefully, my advice will be good or I know the masses can turn against you in a hurry. Regardless of who is following this site (most likely 2 people), it's nice to see at least one person gaining something out of reading this garbage.

With that being said, I wanted to post a few links from this past weekend's action that may pique your interest or most likely not:

Sign I'm Getting Too Old Game

Fox sports net's Pac-10 Midnight special that I always end up falling asleep by the end had one of the most improbable comebacks in recent history. Of course, the last thing thing I remember before hitting the pillow was WAZZU's TD with about 11:00 remaining to take the lead 38-28. Well, CAl ends up scoring twice in the last 4 minutes to win 42-38. Unbelievable game in an already wild, wild season.

Kicker Most Likely to Get Fredo Corleone Treatment AUBURN KICKER JON VAUGHN

Auburn's kicker was 1 FOR 6 against LSU in a heartbreaking loss for Auburn in Death Valley. Auburn out played LSU in Baton Rouge and would have won in regulation with a decent kicker. INstead, they end up losing 20-17 in overtime with Vaughn hitting the left upright trying to get the game into 2nd overtime. You really have to feel for the kid, but that is just downright terrible. I still think Auburn is a team to watch in the SEC. Their tailback (#23), Kenny Irons, is a nice powerful, punishing back and their defense still is one of the best in the SEC. Great win for LSU. The SEC is still up for grabs right now with GEorgia and Alabama obviously in the driver seat in both divisions. Watch out for Georgia this week against Florida without their QB Shockley in the lineup. Could be a scary game for Georgia

Worst game in the history of college football award To the epic 3-0 overtime contest played between perennial powerhouses Florida Atlantic and Arkansas St. I'm not sure if a game has ever finished regulation scoreless since OT was put into place back in the mid 90s. I know this game certainly will not be mistaken for the epic 0-0 scoreless tie between Army and ND back in 1945 many consider the best game ever played. Somehow I bet this game had a tad less excitement in the stadium, and they may have embellished the announced official attendance of 20,367.

More to come....

Friday, October 21, 2005

10/22 Picks and Glover

Is it really already the end of October? It seems like just yesterday the season started. Maybe the Texas season has been so good and the weather in Texas so hot that time is just flying by this season. I am going to savor the rest of this college football season which has been great thus far. Before I get to my picks, let me post what Glover wanted me to put on the blog after the Astros near collapse turned to ecstasy with their Game 6 win in St. Louis to get them into the World Series --

"Mike Scott, Dickie Thon, Alan Ashby, Jim DeShaise, Billy Hatcher, Bob Knepper……..the list goes on and on like Trampe’s johnson but those are the names I grew up cheering for. They are the ghosts of Astros past and finally they can be put to rest. The Stros are going to the series. The Houston Astros are going to the gosh damn World Series. Stros in 5. MVP – Lance “Fat Elvis” Berkman"

Amen Glover, AMEN. One of these years the Rangers may actually win a playoff series let alone the pennant. Yea, right....

Onto the picks....


Navy -7 over Rice -- Another team (Navy) that I've made good money on thanks to Dave should handle the #1 team in ESPN's infamous bottom 10 poll. Navy should be too much for just a really poor rice team. Expect a win by two TDs.

Auburn +6.5 over LSU -- This might be my favorite play of the week. For whatever reason (probably lack of star power with Cadillac, Ronnie Brown and Campbell all gone), Auburn is not getting much respect this year. They are playing well and this game should be very tight. Last year's game was a 10-9 win for Auburn and I expect this year to be a defensive type game. Take the points and be happy about it.

Northwestern +12.5 Over Michigan St. -- Two of the nation's best offenses square off in a big 10 elimination game. While I like MSU's defense better, I still think NOrthwestern's moves the ball with their unbelievably hot QB Brett Basanez (wins over Purdue and Wisconsin) and will gladly take the points in this spot.

@Wisconsin -8 over Purdue -- You could pay for your kid's college tuition with the money made betting against Purdue this season. Their defense can stop no one and their once promising season is now officially in the toilet. A trip to an all of sudden rocking Camp Randall Stadium after their magical win over Minnesota last week is not what they need to get on track. Call this a momentum play plus I just love betting against Purdue.

Smaller Plays

@Texas over Tech -16 -- I'm always hesitant to play the horns, but this year is different. Barring turnover issues, we are going to pound Tech into submission. Kansas St. and Nebraska are not quite Texas. Tech's early season cake walk is going to bite them in the ass in this week.

@UTEP -14 over Marshall -- UTEP always good at home against a pretty piss poor Marshall team.

East CArolina +7.5 over Memphis -- EAST Carolina have been the road warriors this season and I'm hoping they can keep it close against an avg. Memphis team.

@San Diego St. -2.5 over New Mexico -- If the day is going well, I will put a small play on the better team at home.

@Stanford +9.5 over Arizona St. -- Not much for AZ st. to be motivated against an uninspiring but improving Stanford. Will take the points at home.

As for the world series, I think it is going to be a great series but have to give the edge to the White Sox because of their slightly better offense and Ozzie Guillen. White Sox in 7.

Good luck to all this weekend....

Wednesday, October 19, 2005

Simmons Actually Talks College Football

In a turn of events about as likely as Tech pulling off the upset this weekend in Austin, Bill Simmons of sports guy fame actually discusses some college football in his lastest update. At least he admits beforehand that he is not exactly the biggest college football fan in the world.

Also note his discussion about Matt Leinart's celebrity status in LA right now. Is there anyone who you would rather trade places with than Matt Leinart. The guy is bigger than God in LA right now. Anyways, check it out:

Tuesday, October 18, 2005

Not Dead Yet

Houston fans (we know who you are) have to be nervous right about now. Last night was about to be one of the best moments in Houston sports history. Their proud franchise was FINALLY about to make the world series. I can only imagine what that feels like as a Rangers fan whose franchise as only won 1 game in its entire postseason history. Minute Maid park was absolutely electric from Berkman's 3 run shot all the way until the air got sucked out of that place after the Pujols home run.

I have seen quite a bit of knee jerking in the media today about the Astros being finished and how they aren't going to recover from last night's hearbreaking defeat. While I do admit going back to St. Louis in this fashion isn't an ideal scenario, they do have Oswalt and Clemens going game 6 and 7. St. louis still is severely lacking in the hitting department even with rejuvenated life after game 5. The cards need Pujols and Edmonds to carry them to this improbably series comeback and unfortunately they probably need a healthy Scott Rolen to pull of such a feat.

So worry not Houston fans, I think your dream still will come true. You just might have to wait 2 or 3 days for it to happen.

With that being said, Go CARDS and you know the white sox pitching staff is enjoying the next few days waiting see who they will face in the Fall Classic.

What a great time of year...

Monday, October 17, 2005


First off, I'd like to apologize to the gamblers who read this blog for not updating my picks for this past weekend's games. I have been on a roll recently and Hammond informs me that people seem to be relying on my picks. For what it's worth, I had an average weekend (up 3 units). Hopefully, I will be back this week better than ever.

With that being said, hat an unforgettable weekend of college football. The USC - ND game is easily the best game of the season (only topped by a potential USC/Texas matchup) and it would not be a stretch to call this game the best of this century so far. This game had it all. A great champion (USC) with an offense for the ages against an resurgent ND program led by a coach who has done unthinkable this season and led ND right to the doorstep of ending USC's long winning streak. Alas, the Irish came up one QB sneak and one 4th and 9 play from pulling off the miracle upset.

Whatever your feelings on this past weekend game, you would be foolish to discount what an unbelievable job Charlie Weis has done at Notre Dame so far. No one in their wildest dreams could imagine anyone taking this Notre Dame from last season and taking pretty much the exact same talent to within a few inches of beating one of the greatest college football teams of all time. This win would have surpassed some of the greatest wins in Notre Stadium History including '88 Miami and '93 Fla St. Despite coming up short, Weis and the irish have nothing to hang their heads about. Notre Dame is officially back and it is just a matter of time before Weis turns ND into a perennial top 10 program again. And despite what Notre Dame haters may tell you, ND being good is also good for college football as a whole.

One silver lining from this weekend is the possibility of a dream USC - Texas Rose Bowl matchup is still in tact. Texas has one of its toughest challenges left this weekend against a #10 Texas Tech team in Austin. USC has games against Fresno (I still think a dangerous game) and UCLA left on their schedule. USC-TEXAS is what the whole nation wants to see and they just might get it.

I'll try to post more thoughts on the rest of the weekend tomorrow.

Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Plea to Longhorn Fans

Kevin Sherrington's article in today's Dallas Morning News was the impetus behind today's post on the blog.

Any college football fan today can tell you all about the BCS and how screwed up the current system in place is for everyone involved from the coaches to the media to the players and most importantly the fans. No one has been a bigger proponent for a playoff than myself over the years. Hell, I wrote a paper in middle school about how college football should go to playoff and I think anyone with half a brain would agree that playoff is a far more effective way to determine a champion than anything the powers that be in college football have come up with to this point.

With that being said, my plea to longhorn fans is to not bitch and moan about the BCS. Is Texas being hurt by weak big 12 this year? Most definitely. Will we get screwed out of the Rose Bowl because 3 teams finish undefeated (USC, Texas and any possible combination of V-tech , Georgia, Florida St., Penn St., or Alabama, etc.)? The chance is definitely there that TExas could finish #3 in the BCS if 2 of the above teams go undefeated.

It has happened before (last year) and it will certainly happen again under our current system. Now that we got that out of the way, we must also realize a few things. There are ton of games left to be played in this season. Conference play is just getting started and many of the top teams have only played 1 if not zero big games on the road. So my advice to any longhorn fan out there is to enjoy the ride.

I have been saying all year that I thought only 2 teams might go undefeated and I still stick by that. I think when it's all said and done this season only one undefeated team is going to be left after the regular season. And I may sound like a homer when I say this, but I think Texas is going to be the only undefeated team left after the regular season and there will be a mad scramble as to who will fill the other slot in the rose bowl. Call it a crazy hunch but crazier things have happened in this game.

Enjoy the ride longhorn fans. We may not have another season like '05 for a very long time.

Friday, October 07, 2005

10/8 College Plays

Well, I have been on a pretty good run recently if you have been following my picks. I ended up 8-2 (including 3-1 top plays) last week with posted picks on this website. Not bad if I do say so myself. Maybe I have been inspired by Matthew McConaughey's character in the new movie Two for the Money

Either way, let's hope the good run continues this week. And on a more important note, TEXAS MUST beat OU this weekend. There are no more excuses for tomorrow. NONE. TExas must take care of business. Barring a cataclysmic event or VY's getting injured, I fully expect Texas to win this one comfortably tomorrow. PLEASE GOD!!!!

Onto the picks.


@Colorado -3 over Aggy -- I have been pretty money so far this season on my top plays. Wisconsin against UNC and Minnesota over Colorado St. come to mind right away. But this game is my top play to this point in the season. It starts with my perception of both teams going into the season. I thought Aggie was overvalued by the public and CU was undervalued by the public. Both teams' play so far has justified this thinking. This is the perfect spot for Colorado at home against a wounded and confused Aggy team. Barring a collapse by Colorado and/or an other wordly performance by Mcneal, Colorado will win this game.

Other Top PLays

These are plays that I feel pretty strongly about but definitely not betting the house.

Tech -4 over Nebraska -- Serious revenge factor going for Nebraska (worst defeat ever in Lubbock last year) and this game is in Lincoln. Not a good recipe for a Tech cover, but this is an outstanding Tech offense. While Nebraska's D has looked good so far, they will give up points to this TEch offense. I still am not sold on Nebraska's offense despite their performance last week against Iowa St. Lay the points and a better than expected Tech defensive performance will help in this one.

@Navy -1 over Air Force -- While I have been a closet member of the Navy bandwagon the last few years, Dave has put me front and center on the Navy bandwagon this year. I love their brand of football and their jitterbug QB gets me fired up. Air Force hasn't impressed me this year and the home field in Annapolis will pull the Midshipmen to victory tomorrow.

@UAB -21 over SMU -- I am familiar with this SMU program more than most, and this game will not be pretty. SMU comes of a collapse on the road against Marshall up 10-0 going into the 4th quarter. Going on the road again the following week to play the best team in Conf USA is not a good thing. This game should get real ugly. Lay he points and you will probably be enjoying the 2nd half of this one comfortably.

Other Plays

I'm betting them, but more for entertainment purposes than anything else.

Minnesota +7.5 over Michigan -- Too many points to give a team that is playing on par with Michigan so far. Minnesota comes up with a gutty performance if not an outright win in Ann Arbor.

Iowa +5.5 over Purdue -- I have been betting against Purdue for almost a year and don't see any reason to stop now. Take the points.

@Wyoming -6 over TCU -- Wyoming still undefeated against the spread. Might be time to take TCU seriously, but i'll wait to see how they do this week.

@Penn St. +3 over Ohio St. -- Going against the greater majority but I did last week as well when Minnesota came to town. Joe Pa's last stand continues this week in Happy Valley. This crowd will be amped!!!

Good luck and remember to not bet beyond your means.

Monday, October 03, 2005

Fantasy Heartbreak

1 Joe Boo's Rum (Hurst) 120 +5
1 LaLooshes' Douches (Weisenberger) 120 0
3 Buck Ball (Trampe) 119 +1.5

I know people hate reading about fantasy sports stories. But this one is good I promise. As great as my weekend went, my entire fantasy baseball season came down to this this weekend and I get edged at the finish line and end up in 3rd place.

Thank you Brett Tomko for screwing my out of at least 2nd place by throwing a complete game yesterday for Hurst.

I was so worried about my lineup the last weeks and making sure I got every singe hitting point I could. But in the end, it was my pitching that failed me as I finished percentage points behind in ERA, WHIP, and Saves. A few innings and a save going the other direction and I'm in first today. Oh well, what a great fantasy baseball season and I am super fired up about the playoffs. Looking forward to seeing how it shakes out. I am hoping for someone other than Boston or New York taking home the title this year. I think everyone outside of the East coast is sick sick of the Boston and New York lovefest that ESPN and the rest of media crams down our throats.

Here's to a change...