11/19 Picks

Well, it has been a very productive college football season from both a gambling standpoint and from UT fan standpoint. Everything has seemingly gone right this year and I'm hoping that these last couple weeks play out like it has all season.

I'm up +86 units or so for the year and I am hoping to add to that total this week. It's a smaller card with sharper lines so my plays are limited this week.

I guess all the work you've done this season don't mean jack if you can't finish the season strong.

TOP PLAYS

@BYU -11 over Utah -- I had this game circled due to BYU being at home and playing very well the last few weeks in wins over 3 mediocre teams (Air Force, @UNLV, @Wyoming). But I like the way they are playing on both sides of the ball even if they are beating up on MWC mediocrity. Utah is part of that medicority this season unfortunately for utes fans who saw urban meyer turn their program into a powerhouse.

Not so much this season, 5-5 and needing a win to get bowl eligible.

I'm not a big follower of Utah but I knew a chick who went to BYU and those two schools hate each other. I didn't think mormons hated anyone but this rivalry is fierce.

BYU has been beaten up the last few years against Utah and haven't won this game since 2001. It turns around this weekend. I see BYU winning big in this game and the news regarding Utah losing their starter at QB (Brian Johnson) and their main playmaker at WR (John Madsen) solidified this play. No offense to Brett Ratliff who will replacing Johnson at started but the kid has thrown 4 snaps all season.

It's like Simms in Kyle back in 1999. He was a little intimidated. The fans in Provo aren't Kyle field but they are just about as cultish and loud. And thus, I'm on BYU this weekend.



Fresno St. +24 over USC -- Check out USC's injury report this week. I know Pete Carroll can recruit talent but their depleting numbers on defense are frightening.

The one team all season (besides Texas in the Rose Bowl) that can at least try to match USC on both the defensive and offensive lines is Fresno St. They play a physical brand of football and are not going to be intmidated by the USC players. I love the decision making of their senior QB, Paul Pinegar. I trust him to run Fresno's offense in the somewhat hostile environment of the coliseum. Plus, Fresno has the powerful running game led by Bryson Sumlin and Dwayne Mathis, both very good backs. They will need to score some points to keep up with SC but I don't think SC will come anywhere close to their average of 50+ a game.

Fresno has played (Autzen stadium) and won in previous years in very hostile enviornments.

Fresno is also coming off that big win against Boise. How will they react? Do they deserve to be on this big stage?

I think they respond this week and give a hell of an effort. I don't know if they will win, most likely USC has way too many playmakers on offense to not eventually get past a Fresno St.

But I am betting Pat Hill has his guys ready to play. I see the score somwhere in the 35 - 24 range with an outside chance at the outright upset.

And I'm not just taking this game because I want Rose bowl tickets to be cheaper but I don't think a moneyline play is such a dumb bet either.


Other Pays

@Auburn -7 over Bama -- NO offense to Bama, but Auburn is playing better football right now. And getting Bama in Jordan-Hare does not bode well for Bama. This game is close for awhile but Auburn pulls away late.

Nevada -9.5 over Utah St. -- Nevada is playing decent and Utah St. stinks. More of a fade of Utah St. than an endorsement for Nevada.

Tulsa -14 over Tulane -- Fade the poor Tulane team. They just need to get this season over with and figure out what to do with the rest of their lives.

@USF -19 over Cincy -- Cincy disappointed me against W. Virginia and it will not get any easier with a USF team that has been on the road seemingly forever. They enjoy coming home this weekend with a nice, easy win over a young Cincy team.

Good luck everyone this week...