Opening Weekend Picks

Is the first week of college football really here? It has been over one hundred degree countless times this summer in Dallas and I never thought football season would actually come. So the day every college football fan is waiting for when a game that actually counts gets under way always gives me a special feeling. I don't ever want to lose that feeling that I have had every fall since I can remember.

This year's opening week does not have many collossal matchups with FSU vs. Miami and Cal vs. Tennesee being the two exceptions. But this week does have plenty of intrigue and while there may be plenty of Texas over Sunbelt foe North Texas type blowouts this week there will also be plenty of surprises and that's what makes College Football so exciting.

I will try to post my picks weekly this college football season unless I go into a prolonged slump in which case I may just disapper. In any event, let's get to the damn picks. And for those aren't familiar with my work, go back through the archives of last season and check out my resume. I take nothing for granted so these picks are obviously not intended for wagering purposes. Now that the disclaimer is out of the way.

Top Plays

@Arkansas (+8.5) over the Trojans

The hogs have a ton of talent coming back and the Trojans are replacing not only the unbelivable backfield but also some pretty big boys on the offensive line including three standout players. I just have a feeling that Houston Nutt has one of his most talented teams and they will give USC everything the want. I see Arkansas at least keeping this close until the 4th quarter and the 8.5 gives the possibility of a backdoor cover alive for the Hogs. This stadium should be unbelievably loud. The only drawback to this play is the Hogs all world tailback Bryant Mcfadden is out with a bum ankle but I don't think it's enough to stay away from this play

Rutgers (+6) @ UNC

Rutgers has the look of the team that could make some noise this year and John Bunting's tarheels have some talent but are just hoping to get out of this game at home with a W. Would not be shocked to see Rutgers to pull of the outright upset

Medium Plays

Northwestern (-4.5) @ Miami (OH) (Thursday Game)

It would be an understatement to say Northwestern has faced a ton of adversity this offseason considering their coach (Randy Walker) suddenly passed away due to heart attack a few months ago. Well, his successor is former Wildcat LB Pat Fitzgerald (only 31 years old!) who inherits the head coaching duties at his alma mater. I look for an inspired effort by the Northwestern team with a new QB under center against the Redhawks. Miami has decent enough talent but is dangerously weak on defense with only 2 returning starters coming back from a not so great D last year. I see Northwestern going on the road to win one for the their late coach.

@Middle Tennessee St. (-10.5) over Florida International (Thursday)

Yes, this one is obscure but it's the start of the season so what do we really know about all these teams anyways. MTSU is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt which doesn't say much but I think they have enough to get by Florida International by a comfortable margin at home. Won't be many games more obscure than this one the rest of the year

Small Plays

@ Kent St. (+15) over Minnesota

Kent St. is going to be much improved after a nightmare 2005 and they hope an opening Thursday night tilt against a much depleted Minnesota team. The Gophers have managed to finally run out of running backs (Barber III, Maroney, Russell) and I'm sure the running game will still be above average. But it won't be the same and losing two of their stud Linemen I just see the veteran QB Cupito having some opening game frustrations. Give me the Flashes getting over 2 TDs.

@ Penn St. (-16.5) over Akron

Penn St. has to replace quite a bit but they still have Pozluzny and all those LBs and a ton of playmakers on offense even if they did lose Michael Robinson at QB. Akron has a pretty good returning team that made it to a bowl game last season. I still think Penn St. wins in style in their perceived tuneup for Notre Dame. If the Lions take this one lightly, you will probably know it pretty early on. First half is critical to cover this one.

Houston (-14) @ Rice

Houston has a ton of talent on offense and what they hope will be an improved defense with 8 starters coming back. Rice has a lot of returning starters but with a new coaching staff will probably need some time to get adjusted. I expect the homefield advantage to mean little in this matchup and the Cougars should win going away.

@Arizona (-6) over BYU

Mike Stoops should have his best team yet in Tucson and they play host to a decent enough BYU squad. I think Arizona needs this game desperately with a matchup against LSU looming on the horizon. Could be a nailbiter but hopefully Arizona has enough to get past the number.

Florida St. (+3) @ Miami (Monday)

I annually take the underdog in this game and I see no reason to change that line of thinking this year. With Miami starters out for this game, I think FSU takes advantage and wins a close low scoring game. What else is new. Watch for Miami's tailback relative of Edgerrin James.

Totals

I usually royally stink at these, but new year so why the hell not (props to Bader for alerting me of the Tech total)

Over 54.5 SMU/Texas Tech

Is there something the linesmakers know I don't about this one? This has all the makings of a sucker line but I am terrible at totals so why not roll the dice. Tech might score 50 themselves against a decent Pony defense but very suspect secondary. Plus, Tech just plays different on that track in Lubbock. It's almost unfair. I'm serious

Under 50.5 Wisco/Bowling Green

Both teams have major holes on offense with the skill guys for Wisconsin and Jacobs for Bowling Green. Being played in Cleveland I expect this to be a defensive minded game. But what the hell do I know.

Good luck to all this week and I hope this season starts on the right foot.

I'm off to Boston this weekend and a trip to Fenway but I'm sure I'll find a TV somewhere on Saturday. And if not, I have about 13 games Tivo'd just in case.