11/5 Plays

Before I get to this week's plays, I want to reiterate the point I made last week to take this advice for what it's worth, which is nothing. I am putting these picks on the site for people to read, digest and incorporate into their own picks if they so choose.

I'm not guaranteeing winners here, and I'm certianly not putting every pick I make on this site. So with that disclaimer being said, I hope the haters will keep their mouths shut this week regardless of the outcome.



Got the weekend off to a good start last night with a Louisville (-21) cover over Pitt at the last minute for a 42-20 win. Sorry Dave for not getting your over bet (around 65) when it looked like a sure thing in the first half. This game had one of the wildest starts you'll ever see with a fumble recovery for a TD by Louisville on the opening kickoff. Followed by a Kickoff a return TD on the ensuing kickoff by Pitt to make the score 7-7 25 seconds in the game. Wild Stuff. You'll get it back this weekend buddy!

I'm headed to the Baylor game hopefully tomorrow, but I will be back in Dallas tomorrow to check out the solid slate of 2:30 games (Penn St. / Wisconsin, Mizzou/Colorado, ND/Tenn) as well as the marquee matchup tomorrow night between V-tech and Miami. It should be a fun day.

Here are this week's picks:

Top Play
@Tech -17 against Texas A&M -- I have been waiting for this game all season. There are two reasons I'm not betting everything I own on this game.

1) You could have bet this game two weeks ago at Tech -7 or -8 on various sites so a 10 point swing in the span of a few days is pretty dramatic regardless of how pitiful A&M has been playing. I was very frustrated to see A&M screw up against Iowa St. last week because the linesmakers have adjusted for the suckiness of A&M now. If A&M takes care of buisness against Iowa St., then this spread is probably somewhere around Tech -10.

2) I have never seen the public (obviously Texas fans and people around this area) so universally convinced of a pick like Tech this week. I have seen various people on the internet talking about betting the biggest sum of their life, selling their kidneys, etc., etc. to bet against A&M this week. Most of the time I try not to let public perception bother me, but this activity definitely sends up red flags to a guy who has seen the popular public play get burned too many times.

With all that being said, I still have a solid medium sized play on TEch and I think they will absolutely destroy A&M for a host of reasons. I could get into the details behind the play (A&M's horrible defense, A&M "quit factor", Tech's home dominance in Lubbock, Tech's dominance over A&M), but to get to the point, Tech should win this game by at least 3 TDs. I am pretty confident in this play but I would recommend against betting a disproportionately large portion of your bankroll in this game for the reasons outlined above.

Other Plays
Wake Forest +8.5 over Georgia Tech -- Wake has been playing good football as of late and I see them hanging tough with an up and down georgia tech team. Many of Georgia Tech's gams (see last week) are nail biters and I fully expect Wake to push GT to their limits if not win this game outright.

Oregon St. -3.5 over Washington -- Oregon St. blew my undefeated TOP PLAY record last week when they outgained Arizona by around 300 yards but had a -6 TO differential. I am hoping to recoup some of the losses from last week with this play against a pretty lousy U-Dub team. They are waiting for basketball season as sad as that sounds up in Seattle. I expect Mike Riley to get Oregon ST. to bounce back this week.

@Iowa St. -7 over Kansas ST. -- Remember the name Todd Blythe . He was the Wide receiver who torched A&M last week in a 42-14 win in College station and Iowa St. should still riding high after that win. I don't see a letdown this week. Poor Kansas St. just is having a tough go at it this year and it won't get any better this week. Iowa St. should cruise in this one.

@ND -8 over Tennessee -- For all the talk this week about Tennessee circling the wagons, I just don't see it. Phil Fulmer has taken over play calling duties after the dismissal of Randy Sanders (former offensive coordinator). A lot of adversity to handle for a team already questioning itself with the #108th ranked scoring offense due in large part to a rash of injuries at the RB position, including future NFLer Gerald Riggs who is out for the season. ND is well rested after a bye week and I expect Weis to have his guys ready to take on a wounded Tennessee team.

Rice +8 over SMU -- Rice is a very bad team but so is SMU. As bad as Rice has played, they do usually play well against SMU (44-10 in their last win back in Houston). I expect this game to be close as Rice desperately needs a win before this season is over.

Good luck to all this week...