What started poorly in week one (see previous post) got worse in week two. It is time to turn this thing around and hopefully it starts this Saturday.
The talk around Kentucky is unbelievable right now. That line opened at 10 is at 14 in some places right now. I really like the spot for Kentucky.
Another sluggish week 2. I had some live dogs (LA-Lafayette, Houston, UNLV, purdue, ohio st.) but did so poorly in the early morning games that by the time the night games kicked off I didn't really play many of the games I liked. Oh well. Need to get on track this week. Here is what I like:
@Kentucky -13 -- You get a little concerned when so many people are on a game this large. A guy over on cappingthegame.com (collegekingrex) calls this the game of his life and he has a pretty lengthy and strong track record. Not sure if he helped move the line or not but it bumped up huge in the last 48 hours. To me this is like TCU - Viginia which i passed on last week. Seems almost too obvious but plays out just how the cappers thought.
@Kansas -22 -- I'm with Ball. Mangino has patsies for breakfast and Army outplayed Duke last week. I like Kansas to continue their roll.
@Arkansas -1 -- Really like this spot for the Razorbacks. Coming off a bye week and no one is talking about Petrino's bunch. Georgia has already been put through the ringer versus Okie St. and South Carolina. Expect Georgia to punch Arkansas in the face early but Arkansas responds with a big SEC win to jumpstart the Razorbacks at home.
Arizona +6 -- Stoops quietly building up the talent in Tucson. While going into Iowa and getting a win is tough, i agree with Ball that emotionally Iowa may be a little down for this one. Expect a "ball-grinder" of a game with AZ at least keeping it within a one score game if not pulling off the upset.
Utah +4 -- Utah has something like a 14 game regular season win streak going. While they struggled some in the 2nd half against SJ St., i think they are just a better team than Oregon overall.
I also like:
@A&M -18
@Baylor -10
@BYU -7
All a little higher than I would like but still seem
tempting.
Buffalo +4
La-La +26.5
Nebraska +5
Big D
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Friday, September 11, 2009
Wednesday, September 02, 2009
College Football Week One
Well, the college football season is finally upon us. With college football season, also comes handicapping college games. I will try to post my picks weekly and keep a running total of my posted picks as the season moves along. Here is what I like week 1:
Top 2 plays:
@utep -7 (bought the hook) over Buffalo
I like Turner Gill and Buffalo seemingly had everything go their way including the MAC championship miracle. Well, Drew Willy is gone and lost James Starks to injury before the season. I expect Buffalo to play hard but UTEP gets them at home where they are vastly different team. I'll lay the touchdown in the hopes that UTEP can pull away late.
@Rutgers -5.5 over Cincy
Big early Big East conference game so early in the season is so Big East. I love Schiano anytime he needs to get his team motivated and I think he finds a way to get his team more emotionally ready for this game. Cincy has plenty of talent I'm sure but losing Connor Barwin and 10 starters on defense is a a lot for any team. Revenge spot as well for rutgers. Picked Fresno week 1 last year in this exact same spot so I could get burned on this one.
Others:
@Texas A&M -14 over New Mexico
Liked the 12 number a lot better but I think the Aggies come out punching in 2009. New Mexico is down and losing their tailback meant most of their offense left the building. A lot of players gone on defense and a 1st year coach means Aggy may be able to win by 2 TDs. I'll be holding my nose this whole game.
@ohio st. -21 (bought the hook) over Navy
Terrell Pryor is bigger than pretty much every navy player. Unless Ohio st. sleepwalks through this game, they should manhandle navy. Navy should be up emotionally but that won't matter if ohio st. executes. Paul Johnson is no longer in Annapolis. Lay it.
Maybes:
Georgia +6 over Okie St.
Georgia plays well in these roles and Okie ST. is bound to fall flat on their face. i'll enjoy seeing old Boone crying in his beer if the bulldogs come out of stoolwater with a win. That said, stil not sure if I can pull the trigger quite yet on this one
Baylor +3 (buy the hook)
Waiting to see where this number goes. I was hoping to get 6 when I handicapped this game earlier in the summer. It opened at Baylor +1.5 so it is starting to get to a realistic number. Really like Baylor emotionally in this one and losing Sam Swank is going to hurt more than the Deacons realize. And oh yea, a whole lot of good players on defense leaving doesn't help either.
Top 2 plays:
@utep -7 (bought the hook) over Buffalo
I like Turner Gill and Buffalo seemingly had everything go their way including the MAC championship miracle. Well, Drew Willy is gone and lost James Starks to injury before the season. I expect Buffalo to play hard but UTEP gets them at home where they are vastly different team. I'll lay the touchdown in the hopes that UTEP can pull away late.
@Rutgers -5.5 over Cincy
Big early Big East conference game so early in the season is so Big East. I love Schiano anytime he needs to get his team motivated and I think he finds a way to get his team more emotionally ready for this game. Cincy has plenty of talent I'm sure but losing Connor Barwin and 10 starters on defense is a a lot for any team. Revenge spot as well for rutgers. Picked Fresno week 1 last year in this exact same spot so I could get burned on this one.
Others:
@Texas A&M -14 over New Mexico
Liked the 12 number a lot better but I think the Aggies come out punching in 2009. New Mexico is down and losing their tailback meant most of their offense left the building. A lot of players gone on defense and a 1st year coach means Aggy may be able to win by 2 TDs. I'll be holding my nose this whole game.
@ohio st. -21 (bought the hook) over Navy
Terrell Pryor is bigger than pretty much every navy player. Unless Ohio st. sleepwalks through this game, they should manhandle navy. Navy should be up emotionally but that won't matter if ohio st. executes. Paul Johnson is no longer in Annapolis. Lay it.
Maybes:
Georgia +6 over Okie St.
Georgia plays well in these roles and Okie ST. is bound to fall flat on their face. i'll enjoy seeing old Boone crying in his beer if the bulldogs come out of stoolwater with a win. That said, stil not sure if I can pull the trigger quite yet on this one
Baylor +3 (buy the hook)
Waiting to see where this number goes. I was hoping to get 6 when I handicapped this game earlier in the summer. It opened at Baylor +1.5 so it is starting to get to a realistic number. Really like Baylor emotionally in this one and losing Sam Swank is going to hurt more than the Deacons realize. And oh yea, a whole lot of good players on defense leaving doesn't help either.
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