Big D

Big D

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Top 25 Analysis

In what I will admit is usually a pointless event, but the news of Preseason AP rankings being released brings a smile to my face. Just another sign that we are that much closer to the start of football season. Or Christmas day if you are like me.

Well, let's go ahead and get to the rankings and a quick capsule on each team. Before I start, I just wanted to comment on the 2006 season in general. I think obviously there a ton of talented teams out there this year as evidenced by the number of different teams getting first place votes in the preseason poll, but I just don't see any of these teams or anyone running the table. Just look at the top 5 and tell me that you see no question marks with any of those teams on that list including Texas. Just thought I'd go aheand put that on record when we are in Mid-October and noone is left undefeated. Also, don't forget about the additional 12th game that is in play starting this year.

I have also included number of starters returning on each side of the ball (courtesy of my prophet Phil Steele) and predicted record after September 30th games:

1. Ohio St. (35 First Place Votes) 7 starters returning offense / 2 starters returning defense-- A lot of optimism in Buckeye land obviously with the number of skill position guys returning (Antonio Pittman, Troy Smith, Ginn and others), but questions still exist for the Linebackers and Secondary. Three September games large September games: at Texas (9/9), Penn St. (9/23), at Iowa (9/30) will tell a lot about their chances at a National Championship.

3-2 record on 9/30 (Losses at Texas and at Iowa)

2. Notre Dame (Ten First Place Votes) 7 offense / 9 defense-- As someone who has basically followed the Notre Dame program since I was a toddler, I can usually tell whether a Notre Dame team has "it" within a game or two. And for whatever reason, I think the Charlie Weis is going to have the magic back in South Bend this season. It doesn't Hurt to have Brady Quinn, Jeff Samardzija (yes I had a look up that spelling, among other on offense and 9 starters back on Defense including my personal favorite Tom Zbikowki. Key games against Penn St. (9/9), Michigan (9/16), @ Mich St. (9/23). Watch out if ND is 5-0 after September.

5-0 on 9/30 (Shaky start against Georgia Tech (9/2) but back to back huge wins against Penn St. and Michigan in epics the Irish could tasting national title. Then again, both the Penn St. and Michigan games are tossups and at Michigan St. (9/23) and Purdue (9/30) are not gimmes either. This is an interesting schedule in any event...



3. Texas (Eight First Place Votes) 6 offense / 7 defense -- Texas is just absolutely loaded with the exception the Quarterback position where Colt Mccoy (redshirt Freshman) and Jevan Sneed (True Freshman) will have the task of filling Vince Young's huge shoes. But neither guy has to be a miracle worker under center. With Billy Pittman, Sweed, Charles, Blalock, Studdard back on O and a defense that should be even better than last year's team behind Gene Chizik. The sky's the limit in Austin but Texas fans are getting used to dreaming big under Mack Brown since VY set foot on campus. What a great ride it's been, and after the monster show down in Austin September 9th, the schedule lets up until a 9/23 test against Iowa St. The Red River shootout (10/7), at Nebraska (10/21) and at Lubbock (10/28) will be good tests for this Longhorn squad.

5-0 The Longhorns cruise in their other September games after a classic tilt with Ohio St. that I think UT wins in Austin. Whatever you say about the Texas fans and I've said plenty to criticize my alma mater about our fricklel fans, but the place rocks for big games and it doesn't get any bigger than this one in Austin coming off a national championship. The hype for this game is unlike any other I've seen for an early September game. Brings back memories of this one on a rainy day in September of 1989 in Ann Arbor when #1 Notre Dame played #2 Michigan.

Rocket TD return #1


Rocket TD return #2




4. Auburn (Theee First Place Votes) 6 offense / 6 defense -- Tommy Tuberville has been pretty impressive in Aubun and if it wasn't for a heartbreaking loss in Baton Rouge and some shoddy kicking this team would have been one of the bst in the country at the end of the season. As it was, they inexplicably lost to Wisconsin 24-10 in the Capital One Bowl which I'm pretty convinced kicks off at 6 AM New Year's Day. Regardless of how last season ended, Tuberville is going to have a talented squad that has been a little banged up in the preseason. This is a team you must watch very closely early including their massive tile with LSU (9/16) on the Plains. I've had the good fortune to visit Auburn, Alabama a couple times but never for a gameday. I'd like to do that very shortly because that stadium feels electric when watching it on CBS HD. The resiliency of this team will tested often but as is life in the SEC. Other big games include: Florida (10/14), Georgia (11/11), at Alabama (11/18)

4-1 on 9/30 -- Wins against WAZZU, at Miss St, and LsU. Loss at South Carolina !!! on Thursday 9/28.

5. West Virginia (Six First Place Votes) 9 offense / 5 defense -- West Virginia is a very sexy pick coming into the 2006 season and for good reason. The WV backfield combination of Steve Slaton at RB and QB Pat White really flourished last year in always well coached offensive coached football of Rich Rodriguez (former OC at Clemson). This West Virginia team has all the makings of an undefeated team if their defense can step up their level of play. Still games at Louisville (11/2) and at Pittsburgh (11/16) are about the only real tests for this team so not exactly a schedule that scares anyone in the bigger conferences.

4-0 on 9/30 -- Wins against Marshall/E Washington/Maryland/at East Carolina, not exactly murderer's row.

6. USC (Three First Place Votes) 4 offense / 6 defense-- If you lose Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, and LenDale White, there is going to be a dropoff, but the question is how far? I still have the USC "Fight On" stuck in my head from the Rose Bowl where Sarah and I sat in the middle of the USC donor section. Great fans but once the horns took the lead the laidback SC fans got pretty fucking angry. Still got of in disbelief that I was really at the game. Back on point, SC has John David Booty or Mark Sanchez as their starting QB but Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith are still left at receiver so this team will still move the ball. I thinking losing Deuce Lutui, Matua, and Winston Justice may sting just as hard for this team as losing Bush, Leinart and White. Either way, this team figures to be down a notch but it's still SC and they could run the table.

4-0 on 9/30 with a big home game against Nebraska (9/16) and Arkansas (9/2). Big games against Cal and Notre Dame later in the season will dictate how far the Trojans go this season.

7. Florida -- Urban Meyer has Chris Leak and a lot of Ron Zook recruited talent at his disposal. This team will go as far as Chris leak will learn Urban Meyer's offense which worked wonders for Alex Smith and Utah.

8. LSU 6 offense / 5 defense -- Like Meyer at Florida, Les Miles has an unbelievable amount of talent on the Bayou thanks to Nick Saban's relentles recruiting while at LSU. Ally Broussard, a junior tailback and Justin Vincent will try to carry on the recent tradition of good running backs to come out of LSU (Joseph Addai being the most recent). JaMarcus Russell seems to be improving at QB but super-recruit redshirt freshman Ryan Perriloux will be vocally lobbying for more playing. Perriloux famously snubbed UT a few offseasons ago because he felt he could play over Vince Young. Yes, it should be an interesting season in Baton Rouge. at Auburn (9/16), at Florida (10/7), at Tennessee (11/4), at Florida are all huge road games.

5-0 on 9/30 with a win at Auburn. Later games will decide much...

9. California 7 offense / 8 defense -- Jeff Tedford just might have the team to win a Pac 10 title this season and the AP voters seem to agree with that line of thinking. QB situation is okay but Marshawn Lynch and Desean Jackson are difference makers on the offensive side of the ball. This should be Tedfod's best defense since he has been at Cal.

5-0 on 9/30 with a win at Tennesee on opening weekend (more to come on that game later)

10. Oklahoma 4 offense / 9 defense -- Obviously the Bomar situation was the big offseason story in Norman. They still have a dominant defense and Peterson is an unbelievable tailback but losing Bomar is going to hurt and besides Paul Thompson the qb situation is pretty bleak this year. If Thompson is decent then this team may be able to win 10 games. The Texas game looms large...
3-1 on 9/30 with a loss at Oregon

Rest of the top 25 upcoming...




11. Florida State
12. Miami (FL)
13. Louisville
14. Michigan
15. Georgia
16. Iowa
17. Virginia Tech
18. Clemson
19. Penn State
20. Nebraska
21. Oregon
22. TCU
23. Tennessee
24. Arizona State
25. Texas Tech



Others Receiving Votes:
Alabama 141, Utah 52, Boston College 41, Georgia Tech 39, Boise State 23, Arkansas 18, Wisconsin 18, South Carolina 15, Tulsa 11, Texas A&M 10, UTEP 4, Purdue 4, Brigham Young 4, Iowa State 3, Northern Illinois 3, Mississippi 3, Michigan State 2, Arizona 1

No comments: