Well the weather here in Texas is finally getting cooler (if only for a couple days), and that is a good thing because we are finally entering conference season across the country. This should be a good week of football with not a ton of unbelievable matchups, but there should be plenty of competitive games. After last week's narrow approach (only 4 games), I'm back this week with a pretty big card. I have plenty of games that I like a little, but not many I like a lot this week. Going to have a busy Saturday adjusting as the day goes on. I'll break it down into 3 categories this week so take this advice for what it's worth = nothing.
Top Plays
@Bama +4 over Florida -- I like Urban Meyer and I like this Florida team, but I also like Bama, especially their QB, Brodie Croyle. I think the key to this game will be Bama's offense against Florida's D. Florida's D (led by one of my favorites Charlie Strong) has put up some sick #'s so far this year including a +9 TO differential, but I think Bama is going to be able to score on Florida's D. The coaching edge goes to Meyer, but this is a pretty big road test and I am hoping MIke Shula can capture some old bama magic this week. This game should be a classic.
@Penn St. +3.5 over Minnesota -- Most people that read this site (well just Cuyler and Dave) know that I love Minnesota. Unfortunately, you can't be a fan when making wagers. I have said all year that this is Joe Pa's swan song season before he rides off into the sunset, and it starts this week. With Michigan and Ohio St. on the horizon, Penn St. has to find a way to win this week. This should be another great game, but I think Penn St.'s D steps up and plays better against the run their numbers indicate so far. Just in case you were worried, this play does not mean i'm off the Minnesota bandwagon.
Navy -6 over Duke -- I know Dave will like this play, and the only thing that scares me is the crazily long layoff Navy has had since their last game. Normally, Duke's surprisingly good run defense would scare me in this game, but Navy has shown an ability to pass the ball so far this year to offset any running trouble they potentially may have this week. While suffering two heartbreaking losses to Stanford and Mayrland, Navy needs to make statement. Duke as usual is just waiting for basketball season in a brutally tough ACC. I'll take the the road chalk and hope Navy can win this one easily.
Iowa St. +3.5 over Nebraska -- I feel sorry for those of you in the Big 12 region who don't have gameplan. You will be stuck with this game on ABC in the 2:30 timeslot. Both of these defenses are good and both offenses stink. I think Iowa St.'s offense is a little more proven and their team in general is more proven than Nebraska. I will continue betting against Nebraska under Callahan until they prove me wrong. Take the points and be happy about doing so.
Medium Plays
@Wake +7 over Clemson -- Clemson is bound to have at least some sort of an emotional letdown after their rollercoaster first month. Wake is trying to find some consistency after a disappointing 1-3 start. I think Wake has the running game to keep this one close. It would be a larger play but I'm worried about Wake's TO problem
@Mich St. -5.5 over Michigan -- Much like the Wake bet, I pegged this one early but something about this game scares me. Michigan is bound to showup for a big game sometime soon and it might be this week. With that being said, Mich St. is playing great football right now and should be able to handle this michigan team at home.
Baylor +22 over A&M -- Okay, I admit. I just don't like this aggy team and I think Guy Morris is doing some good things at Baylor. A&M should win but it will be tougher than experts are thinking. Looking for a game somewhere in the 42-24 range. A backdoor cover is not out of the question here.
Small Plays
@Iowa -17.5 over Illinois -- Iowa is a different team at home. Enough said.
@UNC -3.5 over Utah -- Tailing my guy on Hornfans.
@FSU -21 over Syracuse -- Syracuse will be lucky to score.
I've got some others but this should be enough of a card to pick out some ones you like.
Good luck to everyone this week and let's all hope Texas doesn't screw the pooch against my good friends up at Mizzou.
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